To Reach a Point of Safety
A Potential Problem in the WGA Negotiations That Could Be Hiding in Plain Sight
The Writer’s Strike is finally over! And man, was it a worthy fight! Guild members received a 5% minimum pay increase, a minimum requirement for staffing writer’s rooms, better-streaming residuals, and transparency regarding numbers. In addition, they also received better health benefits, pensions, and a whole range of other goodies that I just don’t have time to get into because I’d like to take a moment and focus on the issues relating to AI in these negotiations. It isn’t quite apparent to many…But there could be a very big problem on the horizon.
Before I dive into this, however, it needs to be stressed that what I’m about to say should be taken as food for thought rather than as an inevitability. This is my personal opinion, not fact. The future is never set in stone, and it’s entirely possible that my concerns about AI impacting Hollywood will never come to pass. So please, don’t get angry or scared, and for God’s sake, don’t start accusing me of disinformation! No joke, I get that accusation way more often than I’d like to.
Okay, so with that disclaimer out of the way…Let’s get into this controversial perspective, which shouldn’t even be controversial, anyway. But I digress.
The Big Problem…Maybe
Contrary to what’s portrayed on the surface of the negotiations, there’s actually a potential issue that could come back to haunt writers. Here’s a quick breakdown from the WGAContract.org page that lists what both parties agreed on:
AI can’t write or rewrite literary material, and AI-generated material will not be considered source material under the MBA, meaning that AI-generated material can’t be used to undermine a writer’s credit or separated rights.
A writer can choose to use AI when performing writing services, if the company consents and provided that the writer follows applicable company policies, but the company can’t require the writer to use AI software (e.g., ChatGPT) when performing writing services.
The Company must disclose to the writer if any materials given to the writer have been generated by AI or incorporate AI-generated material.
The WGA reserves the right to assert that exploitation of writers’ material to train AI is prohibited by MBA or other law.
All of this sounds wonderful, and it is…Until you read the rest of the last point. Here’s a direct quote from the agreement:
"The parties acknowledge that the legal landscape around the use of GAI is uncertain and rapidly developing and each party is reserving all rights relating thereto unless otherwise expressly addressed in this Article 72. For example, nothing in this Article 72 restricts any writer who has retained reserved rights under Article 16.B., or the WGA on behalf of any such writer, from asserting that the exploitation of their literary material to train, inform, or in any other way develop GAI software or systems, is within such rights and is not otherwise permitted under applicable law."
This sounds okay, but it means that both writers and studios are allowed to use their screenplays to train their own AI models. While yes, it’s great that a writer has protection over the screenplays they own, those same protections also apply to studios and the content they already own/acquire. Right now, this isn’t an issue at all. Even if you had the greatest stories in the World to train an AI model, and even if you fine-tuned it in the best way possible with all the best prompts, the most that AI could do is create solid frameworks for scenes that you can build on.
This means that a studio could create its own model, have it generate scenes, and then hire someone outside of the WGA who knows a decent amount about writing to come in and fix it. And yes, that story would be good enough for a VOD platform, though it wouldn’t be fantastic. But if VOD providers pepper in some legitimately great movies on their platforms, then that can be good enough for their goals, which isn’t necessarily to make a great story.
So with current technology, it’s already possible to shave off a lot of writers from the Island, and the only thing stopping this from happening is a 3-year agreement and the technical limitations of AI. In other words, studios still can’t afford to piss off all the writers, so they’d rather bide their time with this agreement until the moment is right, which isn’t today…But perhaps tomorrow?
I mean, how long will these limitations in AI actually last? We could be looking at its highest level of performance for the next decade or longer, in which case writers would be safe because they would still have enough leverage to bring studios to the negotiating table. Or, all of this could change overnight. In 3 to 5 years we could be looking at true AGI. That is, if we’re able to bring the computational power requirements down, scale up its ability to perform much more complex tasks, and if we’re able to make it less reliant on other people’s data so that it can train itself using its own.
Now let’s circle back to the fact that writers and studios can train their own models with their own screenplays. If the problems mentioned above are solved, which could happen in the next few years or a few decades, then the next time there’s a strike, writers might not be invited back to the table because they will have lost all of their leveraging power to negotiate anything.
That’s probably why they put this seemingly innocent clause in the contract because there’s a reasonable chance that these studios are consulting with top AI experts who are giving them information to prepare for either scenario. If AI doesn’t advance far enough in 3 years, then they’ll just continue to train their AI models while playing ball with the writers. This way, if or when AI does advance far enough, they’ll have their models prepped and ready to deploy. But will you?
Of course not. You’re a writer, not some business owner looking to bring your costs down. So what should you do to prepare yourself for this possibility? The apparent solution is to work your way up and become a WGA member where you can fight against it with your vote during the next round of negotiations. But there’s no guarantee that you’ll make it to the WGA or that they’ll even win, especially if studios are able to figure out how to train their models to produce novelty without the need for new screenplays.
There are just too many unknowns to solely rely on the WGA to handle this issue. That isn’t to say that they should be dismantled. Quite the contrary. At this moment in time, the Guild should be strengthened to survive these choppy waters, especially since what they’re fighting for is honorable and matters a lot. But long term, it may not be the optimal solution, especially for writers outside the WGA. Think about it like this:
Imagine you’re living in a town surrounded by a wall that’s holding back an entire ocean. If that wall breaks the town will become the ocean. There’s a major company that owns the town and the Wall and is responsible for the construction and maintenance of them. For the most part, they do a good job.
But lately, the company has been cutting corners trying to reduce expenses, including lowering the pay of their union contractors and the number of contractors they hire to maintain the town and wall. Their jobs have become much harder. Some begin to suspect that the company wants to flood the town so that they can implement their new super secret ocean surface community, which will only house the best members of the town while letting the rest drown.
The townsfolk begin to protest, and the union workers go on strike, bringing the town to a standstill.
The owners want to carry on with their secret plans but know that they can’t achieve this without the support from the town and union members. New innovations in technology need to be made, first, before they can fully implement their ocean surface community.
The company caves into their demands and gives them what they want, except for one little exception. They’re still allowed to build their new community as long as they’re maintaining and developing the existing one so that it can continue to flourish.
The townsfolk and union members are nervous about this but agree because A. They don’t exactly know what the owner’s intentions are or whether they’ll even be able to achieve their goals, B. They have immediate issues like money problems that need to be dealt with now and C. This clause allows them to build their own ocean surface community, which seems fair…except they don’t have the resources to build one.
Either way, most people see it as a win even though they still don’t trust the owners. But for now, all is good. The townsfolk and union members go back to business as usual.
But a few people see the events that have unfolded and say to themselves, “Wow. That would have been a totally devastating outcome had they not needed our support in order to complete their ocean surface community.”
These people recognize the fragility of the situation and know that as soon as they no longer need the town, they’re going to let the ocean swallow it, whole. So instead of going back to work, they decide to build nice floatable homes for themselves. Everyone thinks it’s cool but also a complete waste of time. They tell them, “Hey, why are you building a new home when you have a perfectly good one, right here?” But these few individuals silently ignore the criticism and continue building.
Then one day…It happens. The owners of the town abandon the people, let the town flood, and sail off into the sunset with their brand-new floating community. The only survivors are those who either made it to the exclusive floating community or who decided to roll their sleeves up and build their own little safe place to endure and thrive in this new environment.
That’s essentially what we’re facing right now. We are the townsfolk and the contractors, so if you can’t land a spot on the floatable community, build one of your own because you may very well need it.
It’s entirely possible that none of this comes to fruition. If that’s the case, your concern will only make you into a better writer. So no loss, right? But if it does come true…Well, then you better learn how to float!
So What’s the Solution (Or Rather, What Do I Think is the Solution?)
I don’t like to say this because it scares/angers people, but the writers who will most likely suffer the consequences of AI being integrated into Hollywood will be those who are good but not the best and who only write screenplays. The ones who will win out will be those who are either the best writers in the World or those who know how to write well in addition to juggling how to market, sell, direct, DP, and build value that they can leverage for their own income (entrepreneurship). Here’s why.
If we assume that AI will one day be able to do most of the creative work, then major studios will further lean into the streaming distribution game like Netflix or Sony since there will be too much content, which will require VOD platforms to house all of them. This doesn’t mean that movie theaters won’t exist. It just means that most of our content will be watched online, instead of in the movie theaters, which is basically what it’s like, today.
To get the best bang for their buck, studios will probably have mostly AI-generated content, either automatically made, if it advances far enough, or made with a few in-house creatives who will be non-union, but working for a decent salary. However, this AI-generated content will always be based on prior movies, so you’ll still get “novelty” but it won’t be as powerfully new as human-made content, which means there will be a real thirst for that.
So studios will still hire the best of the best to make these movies, only they’ll be far fewer because they’ll be more expensive than AI-generated content. However, the top talent will be paid more handsomely because the marginal cost of production and marketing will be significantly less.
This will shore up more money to secure these few “once-in-a-generation” talent who may demand more given that they’ll likely be miffed about Hollywood dropping most of their creators. Perhaps Nolan can’t be paid enough to work for this new Hollywood, but the next Chris Nolan who is living in their parent’s basement looking for their big break? I guarantee they’ll be able to give them a price that works for breaking their moral compass.
The rest of us will be kicked off the island because they just won’t need us. And this is where things can become a lot more positive despite the seemingly negative outcome. If there is a mass exodus of talented, but not the most talented creators, then there will be a demand from them to continue doing what they love for money. Only this time they’ll want total control over how they do it, given their 3rd degree burns from Hollywood.
Concurrently, if we assume that most industries across the board end up doing something similar, then you’ll see a lot of viewers demand ways to make and grow their money in meaningful ways that can instill a sense of purpose in their lives and give them total control over how they do it.
These complimentary demands from the creators and consumers will likely initiate a market response whereby a laterally decentralized autonomous market network run by professionals, but owned by creators and viewers, could emerge and foster a massive boom in the independent film industry. Creators could still work (at least the better among us) using their own “personal studios”, and fans could invest in these personal studios that are doing well, which would make both the creators and consumers better off.
Moreso, this would also be great for Hollywood since they’ll be facing that painstaking issue of producing genuine novelty, which is exactly why they’ll probably pluck the best from this massive global pool of indie creators and pay them handsomely to make the occasional “Big Event” movies that will drive more users to their platforms.
So I believe that, with AI, you’ll see a much more enhanced version of Hollywood that, yes, will kick a lot of creators out of the game. But at the same time, AI will empower the indie spaces so that the creators kicked out will be able to build their own jobs on their own island. The indie space could very well turn into our “floatable home” after the floodgates open.
But if this transition does occur, which is still a BIG if, then it won’t be easy for us, and not everyone will make it because it will no longer be enough to just write or shoot films. You’ll have to adopt similar skills that a social media influencer possesses because you’ll need to create and sell your own content and learn how to build a fanbase. And all of this will need to be accomplished with far more voices in the ring.
So my advice, which you’ve probably heard over and over again, but I stand by it. Learn how to swim on your own without studio help, regardless of the future. Doing so will make you immune to any changes that occur with AI. And even if no changes occur and everything continues as is, at least you’ll be much better off because of it. After all, someone who can write a great story, direct, shoot, produce, market, and sell really well will always outcompete someone who can write a great story. It’s a business, right?
Conclusion
A lot of people who read this might feel angry or dismayed. Hell, they might even think I’m completely full of shit, and maybe they’re right. No one can accurately predict the future, so it’s entirely possible that nothing like this will happen…But there’s certainly a possibility and that makes me, at least, concerned enough to ponder on what could be and to make the necessary preparations to safeguard against such a possibility.
The WGA is a fantastic force that’s doing a hell of a lot to protect the rights of screenwriters, and I anticipate that they’ll continue to do so in a positive manner. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be able to protect screenwriters if AI advances far enough. This would be especially true if generative AI advanced far enough to be able to replace actual filmmaking because then actors, crew, and directors would no longer be able to share their leveraging power with the writers in order to keep them in the game.
In the end, I think it’s extremely important that we continue supporting the unions that are protecting people in the industry while simultaneously recognizing that they may not have the power to fully protect us in the future. If we really want to protect ourselves then, again, we need to learn how to do everything, ourselves. Best case, we can adapt to future changes. Worst case, we just become more hireable within the existing system.
But whatever you do, do not just write! Yes, it’s a super valuable skill that can make you money, and it’s also incredibly enjoyable for many of us…But it won’t guarantee a future, not anymore. You have to go beyond the words to reach that line of safety, and even then…Will it really be enough? I don’t know. But it’s certainly concerning, interesting to think about, and something that should be on the back of all of our minds.
Anywho, that’s my scary October blog! Thanks for checking this out, and as always, best of luck in your creative endeavors!
Story Prism
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